U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 251553 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 251552 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1052 am CDT Wed Apr 25 2018 


Valid 251630z - 261200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of 
the central and south Texas... 


... 
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may affect the Lower/Middle Rio 
Grande Valley region of south Texas, and perhaps into parts of 
central Texas. 


... 
A strong cold front is surging southward across The Big Bend region 
of TX, and is spreading eastward through The Hill Country. 
Scattered elevated thunderstorms are occurring immediately behind 
the front, with the potential for hail in the stronger cells 
throughout the day. The air mass ahead of the front continues to 
moisten and destabilize, with afternoon MLCAPE values expected to be 
around 2000 j/kg. It appears likely that a few severe thunderstorms 
will affect parts of northern Mexico, with some severe threat 
extending northward into the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. At this time, 
12z guidance and trends in observational data continue to support 
that the overall risk in central/south Texas is marginal, but an 
isolated storm or two could produce large hail and/or damaging winds 
this afternoon and evening. 


.Hart/Kerr.. 04/25/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 242155 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 242155 
txz000-250030- 


Mesoscale discussion 0288 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0455 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 


Areas affected...portions of West Texas 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 242155z - 250030z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...an isolated damaging wind and hail threat should develop 
eastward this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely mainly due to the 
marginal thermodynamic environment. 


Discussion...isolated thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along 
and just ahead of a surface trough located over West Texas. Surface 
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across 
this region, but low-level moisture return has been very limited 
thus far. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads generally around 40-45 
degrees imply a very well-mixed boundary layer, and convective 
downdraft winds will likely be enhanced as they reach the surface, 
possibly producing isolated severe-caliber gusts. Although winds in 
the 0-3 km layer remain weak per 2136z vwp from klbb, they do veer 
and strengthen slightly into mid-levels. This is supporting 
effective bulk shear values around 30-35 kt, which should be 
marginally supportive of organized updrafts and perhaps some hail 
threat with the strongest cores. Tendency with time should be for 
convection to congeal into some form a loosely organized 
line/cluster as it moves eastward this evening, with strong to 
locally damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The limited 
low-level moisture and resultant marginal thermodynamic environment 
should tend to keep the overall severe threat isolated, and watch 
issuance appears unlikely at this time. 


.Gleason/Thompson.. 04/24/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...oun...sjt...lub...maf... 


Latitude...Lon 31650029 31550090 31590160 31920225 32170221 32530197 
33040206 33190209 33520190 33760093 33749993 33379952 
32869938 32389950 31989981 31650029